Asia faces its own vulnerabilities. Japan, South Korea, and China are among the largest importers of Qatari LNG, and any sustained shortfall would force them to make difficult choices: draw down strategic reserves, negotiate emergency supplies at premium prices, or impose demand-reduction measures on industry. Japan and South Korea, which have limited domestic energy production, are especially exposed, given that energy security has been a persistent national vulnerability for both countries since the 1970s oil shocks.
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Many firms reported in the Fed survey expressed optimism for their domestic sales, and a rising share are even turning to artificial intelligence tools to increase productivity. But with the Trump administration signaling it is exploring avenues to raise and extend the provisional tariffs currently in place, small business sentiment is likely to stay under pressure in 2026.